Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.015989 1.186187 1.375768 1.602567 1.866526 2.164081 2.525064
2024-12-22 0.706803 0.921773 1.188400 1.543324 2.003532 2.580407 3.359200
2024-12-29 0.600519 0.846555 1.175649 1.647863 2.308374 3.200242 4.497928
2025-01-05 0.484308 0.727493 1.073427 1.601119 2.386230 3.512453 5.254091
2025-01-12 0.397973 0.631616 0.982168 1.545987 2.430856 3.768306 5.948443
2025-01-19 0.333825 0.556549 0.907034 1.498093 2.471061 4.011970 6.644744
2025-01-26 0.298230 0.520018 0.884506 1.526274 2.629601 4.452743 7.703865
2025-02-02 0.281618 0.511813 0.905568 1.627012 2.917986 5.136297 9.251136
2025-02-09 0.258997 0.489341 0.898422 1.676436 3.121853 5.698218 10.656912
2025-02-16 0.235685 0.461935 0.878234 1.698359 3.276906 6.189459 11.993770
2025-02-23 0.212774 0.431809 0.848615 1.697646 3.387625 6.609586 13.245927
2025-03-02 0.191000 0.400737 0.812869 1.679610 3.461023 6.965094 14.413356
2025-03-09 0.174218 0.378009 0.791642 1.690008 3.597054 7.468253 15.962185
2025-03-16 0.152663 0.342377 0.739912 1.631121 3.584084 7.673173 16.929579
2025-03-23 0.148728 0.344192 0.766357 1.741689 3.944441 8.693971 19.768319
2025-03-30 0.132123 0.315296 0.722787 1.692302 3.947376 8.951131 20.960239
2025-04-06 0.116972 0.287563 0.678083 1.634046 3.921897 9.141123 22.022373
2025-04-13 0.104210 0.263677 0.638998 1.583439 3.906980 9.351835 23.158444
2025-04-20 0.097917 0.254725 0.633765 1.613217 4.087740 10.038021 25.523907
2025-04-27 0.096549 0.257971 0.658330 1.719662 4.470523 11.251743 29.347819
2025-05-04 0.092165 0.252794 0.661351 1.771884 4.723277 12.177998 32.565132
2025-05-11 0.086652 0.243842 0.653612 1.795049 4.903720 12.944479 35.467216
2025-05-18 0.080528 0.232346 0.637741 1.794295 5.020254 13.560006 38.045730